Some strange things are happening in Venezuela. According to this article, there were significant protests at a Chavez address. Recently, the polls have been closing in on Chavez and according to one he and Capriles, the opposition candidate, are nearly tied. Another shows Chavez’ lead dropping from 15.3% to 12.5% – a difference nearly within the margin of error. Polls are notoriously unreliable in Venezuela, but the trends over time may be more revealing than individual polls. According to Daniel in Venezuela, there are three key states where Chavez has lost substantial support. After summarizing his information he says,

to win in October either Chavez or Capriles need to carry AT LEAST two of these three states. Why? Because they have a voting weight and because they are the most telling of electoral trends since they represent three different political situations that may converge nevertheless in Capriles favor. If Capriles leads/carries the three of them, even with narrow margins, then it will mean that he wins/won the election.

Daniel’s crystal ball has been fairly reliable in the past. The election is scheduled to be held in October.

The Devil's Excrement

Tonight, Chavez nationwide address was interrupted when Guayana workers broke into the stage and started protesting. Chavez tried to go into the Hornest Nest, but it did not work well. Guayana workers are tired of promises. Is this a turning point in the campaign?

And this was the preamble to the protest: Mr. President, we haven’t had a collective contract for three years. And one more thing…!

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About danmillerinpanama

I was graduated from Yale University in 1963 with a B.A. in economics and from the University of Virginia School of law, where I was the notes editor of the Virginia Law Review in 1966. Following four years of active duty with the Army JAG Corps, with two tours in Korea, I entered private practice in Washington, D.C. specializing in communications law. I retired in 1996 to sail with my wife, Jeanie, on our sailboat Namaste to and in the Caribbean. In 2002, we settled in the Republic of Panama and live in a very rural area up in the mountains. I have contributed to Pajamas Media and Pajamas Tatler. In addition to my own blog, Dan Miller in Panama, I an an editor of Warsclerotic and contribute to China Daily Mail when I have something to write about North Korea.
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  1. Pingback: Hi Ho, Hi Ho. It’s off to Tehran they Go. | danmillerinpanama

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