Venezuelan Election Postmorten: Maduro Ain’t Chávez

The situation in Venezuela puzzles me, perhaps at least in part because I haven’t been there for over a decade.

This post provides a postmortem on the recent election there and on the “evolving” stances of the alleged winner, Maduro, and the Chavista hierarchy on whether to have a recount. We don’t know the parameters of the recount, but what might happen if Capriles is found to have been the winner? That seems unlikely – not because it is unlikely that he got a majority of the votes but because such things in Venezuela tend to be rigged to suit the Chavistas. Still, what might happen?

The Devil's Excrement

20130418_TALC1_7_2_F1

Independent of the outcome of the audit (Just think, besides the irregularities and votes abroad, 166,000 people could not vote because the border was closed ahead of time and 140,000 new voters were not allowed to vote, despite the law saying they could) Nicolas Maduro starts his term weakened by the close electoral result, his backtracking on the audits and the protests and the questioning of his victory. Had he allowed the recount on day one, he would be in a much stronger position, even if still quite weakened by the fact that his candidacy lost some 600,000 votes from the October Presidential election.

Maduro won in 16 states, while Capriles won in eight states, but the latter are the most populous and urban states in the Nation. Among large population states, only Carabobo went for Maduro and in that State is where the opposition appears to have the largest…

View original post 1,307 more words

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About danmillerinpanama

I was graduated from Yale University in 1963 with a B.A. in economics and from the University of Virginia School of law, where I was the notes editor of the Virginia Law Review in 1966. Following four years of active duty with the Army JAG Corps, with two tours in Korea, I entered private practice in Washington, D.C. specializing in communications law. I retired in 1996 to sail with my wife, Jeanie, on our sailboat Namaste to and in the Caribbean. In 2002, we settled in the Republic of Panama and live in a very rural area up in the mountains. I have contributed to Pajamas Media and Pajamas Tatler. In addition to my own blog, Dan Miller in Panama, I an an editor of Warsclerotic and contribute to China Daily Mail when I have something to write about North Korea.
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3 Responses to Venezuelan Election Postmorten: Maduro Ain’t Chávez

  1. John Hayes says:

    Hi Daniel, my family in Venezuela have helped me understand what is going on, a consolidation of business and the state, to feather the nests of the Cuban overlords and their Boliburguese poodles.
    Venezuela, in a doddering way, was once the most progressive and affluent society in Latin America, living up to bolivar’s Dream of (one half of La Gran Colombia). Poverty rates and infant mortality were falling, literacy, healthcare, home and automobile ownership rising. They had the most stable currency on the continent, the lowest unemployment. they actually were working to further reduce levels of poverty. Romulo Gallegos had had considerable influence. The country had armed forces, but did not really expect to use them for more than a border fracas with a neighbor.

    The transformation of the most laid-back and hopeful land in Latin America into the colonial military police state of Cubazuela under renowned “energy expert Ramiro Valdesis heartbreaking.It reminds me of the Huxley novel, “Island.”

    The infrastructure, the economy, foreign relations (Maduro’s handiwork), civil domestic security are all in a shambles.Maduro had Bolivarian Militia abscond with the national gold reserves to cuba for “safe-keeping.” On the books, Venezuela gives over 100,000 barrels of refined crude to Cuba weekly. do they even have enough 1950s US and Angolan jalopies to burn that much? Cuban General Valdes runs the Bolivarian intelligence service AND the now over-swollen political militia and standing military. All top government posts are held by individuals schooled in Cuba’s School of Foreign Relations hand picked by the Castros and Ramiro Valdes. Leonard Andollo Valdes also has a hand in things.

    My relatives have had two close family members kidnapped for high ransom in the past year. While blindfolded,they listened to their captors. they heard cuban military speech when an evident jefe arrived, the couriers seemed to be Columbians. They were able to peek under the bandanna when moved around by the guards. The guards were wearing Bolivarian Militia black uniforms and boots. Go figure, drugs from FARC, now kidnapping! They were beaten, starved, everybody was threatened. The chavista teachers at the kids’ schools all seemed to know what was up, were constantly taunting and intimidating the kids, telling them the victims would surely die no matter what. Such love, such sterling mentors to the youth! One victim escaped using training I had given him in hand to hand (liu he ba fa), snagged a laptop and some documents, escaped and is now safely out of the country. It seems that the targeting and eyes on the street are staffed by former Chavez allies, leaders of bands of thugs in Federal prisons, known as “Pranes.”

    Meanwhile, we have US born Eva Golinger freely traipsing around the US and Venezuela propagandizing for these clownish thugs, drawing in those who havea softspot for the less fortunate, and earning millions for their deceptive spew. Have you read any of her anti-American drivel? She was actively recruiting Yanks into Bolivarian Circles in the US…travelling to Cuba for nuts and bolts CE, more or less an open socialnetworking and Blogging/book/film successor to Ana Belen Montes.

    Americans need to take Latin America very seriously, and to not neglect the responsibility to have good relations with good neighbors, and to protect ourselves and our friends from bad neighbors. While we were chasing Ali Baba’s treasure and WMDs in the Middle East, a nest of vipers sprang up to the south and we did nothing constructive and effective. we did send Kathering Harris to Argentina and Brazil on junkets. I am sure she made a huge impression. After all, she certified election results achieved using software produced by Bolivarian controlled Smartmatic/Sequoia systems. The story on that lies in congressional Depositions on them and a subcontractor owned by a Cochin Chinese- Vietnamese family now on the run. The lesson learned was we did it, now your time has come.

    In a time of crisis, Chavez ran as aclassic demagogue and reformer. they weren’t using the aforementioned software then, he won fair and square. Since then, he never won again, just manipulated vote tabulation, suppressed the opposition, bought support at election time from his clientele, bussed them around to vote early and often, then gave them money, homes, the old Lords of the Levie or Tammany Hall would have been envious.they only had silver dollars and turkeys. For more literate cadre, Chavez gave make work jobs, appliances, foreign postings. Now they are broke, can’t float enough petrodollars backed by North Korean funney money distributed by Castro Criminal Finance Ministry to pay for oil necessities or imported food needed to offset domestic production they have extinguished by expropriations, insane price controls, treaties with other “Mercosur” bloc nations requiring Venezuela to buy corn, culinary oil, etc from them!.

    FYI My maternal cousin Daniel F O’Leary was Bolivar’s valued assistant and comrade. They both must be tossing and turning inthe Pantheon Nacional over the usurpation.

    • john,

      Thank you very much for your comment. I appreciate it and will try to respond at greater length later this evening. For now, my wife greatly enjoyed Venezuela when we were there pre-Chavez and once thought of settling a rural area up in the mountains in Merida. We are glad that we didn’t.

      Dan

    • John,

      My wife and I arrived in Venezuela in 1997 and were there for about a year, before sailing (leisurely, with many stops along the way) to Bonaire and points West. We enjoyed our time there. There were, of course, slums in Caracas — most noticeable, perhaps, when en route to and from the principal airport. Still, medical care was pretty good and, for those with Yankee Dollars excellent. We greatly enjoyed the City of Merida and the surrounding countryside. Here is an attempt at satire about our trip to Los Nevados.

      While in Bonaire, we sailed every three months or so to Puerto Cabello to restock on booze, diesel and other stuff. We were there on September 11, 2001. Jeanie was helping some other cruisers check in when the port captain told her that something terrible was happening and urged her to come quickly, to see it on the television set in his office. She did, and saw a World Trade Center tower going down after the second aircraft hit. She, of course, called me on the radio and I watched on our TV (in Spanish, with English on the short wave). Later that day, when we went for a walk, the people — who had usually approached us to warn of robbers — came to express sympathy.

      We have now lived in the highlands of Panama for almost a decade and like it here. Honduras, under el Presidente Lobo, seems to be emulating Venezuela under Chavez and other Latin American nations are as well. Will that eventually happen here? I don’t sense yet that it will, but it may.

      Here is a link to a blogger down in Venezuela and, if you have not yet been reading his blog you should consider it. He is, I think, the only English language anti-Chavez blogger there. How much longer will be be there? I haven’t the foggiest idea.

      Dan

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