The situation in Venezuela continued to deteriorate despite Carnival festivities and the anniversary of the death of el Thugo Chávez one year ago. The re-blogged article at Devil’s Excrement provides a good account of what has already happened and why and suggests this for the near future:
The question remains: What is Maduro after? Suspend constitutional guarantees before the real shortages begin? Blame the opposition for those upcoming shortages?
It could be, but somehow, it seems as if the people of Venezuela are beyond those tricks. Which is why I see more violence, almost civil war-levels ahead. Until the Government makes a mistake. The opposition can make many, but they are not in charge and they are not armed. But any use of excessive force by an aggressive and well armed Government, could simply be the beginning of its end.
And that seems to be where the Government is taking us.
Constitutional guarantees have already been substantially abandoned de facto. De jure suspension probably would not be noticed by many. El Presidente Maduro appears to be going nuts even more pervasively and obviously than before. To the extent that he is in charge, or to tries to be, his regime is likely to continue to make more and increasingly disastrous mistakes. That’s all it seems able to do.
Might arrival of former President Carter help? Not likely, unless more farcical posturing provides temporary relief from tensions.
It has been four weeks since the first San Cristobal protests that ignited the current wave of repression. Some people are still trying to understand what is happening, why it is happening and where it will end. I have no answer to where this will all go, but I do think I understand parts of what took us to where we are.
The current wave of protests began in Tachira State, as understood well by Girish Gupta in his article in The New Yorker, the people of Tachira are among those hurt the most by shortages in Venezuela, add to that a student protest, some jailed students taken to another State, which is illegal, and you had the necessary sparks to get this thing going.
But this wasn’t enough. You have to add to the combination tha,t coincidentally, that same week, Leopoldo…
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